[E] How COVID-19 Restrictions Reshaped Electricity Consumption in France: Sectoral and Intra-Day Evidence
Le 26 mars 2026 de 13h00 à 14h00
à Pau en salle du Conseil (bâtiment des Lettres); à Bayonne, en salle 110 via Teams
Abstract :
This paper evaluates the impact of national COVID-19 containment measures on electricity markets in France, with a primary focus on electricity demand. Using a Difference-in-Differences approach applied to national electricity consumption data from RTE (2015–2021) and the Oxford Stringency Index, we analyze how restrictions reshaped aggregate, sectoral, and intraday electricity demand and the load curve. We find a significant decline in overall electricity consumption, mainly driven by school and workplace closures, and public transport restrictions, while stay-at-home orders increased residential electricity use. Demand declined in the industrial, tertiary, transport, and agricultural sectors, and partially shifted to households, though the rebound in residential consumption did not offset losses elsewhere. The reduction is strongest during working hours and on weekdays, and becomes insignificant on Sundays. We further show that this demand shock reduced generation from fossil-based plants, increased the share of renewable generation, and led to lower and more volatile wholesale electricity prices. Beyond the COVID-19 context, these results provide insights for anticipating future structural shocks affecting electricity systems.