Les Séminaires ont lieu les jeudis de 13h00 à 14h00 et en visioconférence entre :
Pau (salle Chadefaud du bâtiment ICL, ou salle des thèses, salle du Conseil ou salle D04 du bâtiment DEG)
Bayonne (salle de réunion 110 ou salle du Conseil)
Les travaux des membres de l’équipe et ceux de nos invités y sont présentés et discutés.
Si vous êtes intéressés pour présenter vos travaux, veuillez contacter Alexandre VOLLE.
[E] Cutting Free Allocation Cuts Emissions: Evidence from Phase IV of the EU ETS
Le 11 déc. 2025 from 01:00PM à 02:00PM
Arthur WILLEMAERS (UMR TREE)
à Pau, en salle des thèses; à Bayonne en salle 110 via Teams
Abstract :
Phase IV of the EU ETS tightened the cap and reformed free allocation. In 2021, a narrower carbon leakage list and benchmark updates produced a one-off drop in realized free allocation. Using 2015 to 2023 data on Phase III and Phase IV incumbents from the EUTL, we construct a time-invariant, installation-level dose from the 2020 to 2021 change and estimate a continuous difference in differences with installation and year fixed effects. The event study shows stable pre trends, and allocation levels are essentially flat after 2021. Cutting free allocation reduces emissions. In our preferred specification, the slope after 2021 is -0.359, implying about -3.5% lower emissions for a 10 percentage-point loss of free allocation. From the perspective of the independence property, this dose response pattern indicates that, in Phase IV manufacturing with activity-linked free allocation, changes in the allocation schedule are not neutral for verified emissions. Among exposed firms with positive pre-2020 banks, we find no detectable attenuation. Aggregating to the BvD-entity perimeter, the emissions response replicates in direction and timing. In standard Orbis accounting aggregates over 2021-2023 we do not detect short-run movements within the ETS-linked perimeter. Non-ETS plants of the same entity are unobserved, so we neither establish nor rule out carbon leakage. The evidence is consistent with stronger effective carbon pricing at the installation margin under activity-linked allocation in Phase IV and provides quantitative input on the environmental effect of phasing down free allocation and the transition to CBAM
[E] Shifting Roles of Renewable and Fossil Energy : Evidence from a Novel War-Induced Energy Intensity Index
Le 18 déc. 2025 from 01:00PM à 02:00PM
Erwann SBAI, Maître de conférence d'économie à l'université d'Auckland
à Pau, en salle des thèses DEG ; à Bayonne, en salle 110, via TEAMS
Abstract
The Russia-Ukraine war, escalating in February 2022, severely disrupted European energy markets. This conflict significantly increases energy security concerns and drives costs to unprecedented levels. This study investigates the evolving roles of renewable and fossil energy in mitigating this insecurity. We introduce a novel War-Induced Energy Intensity (WEI) index, constructed from over 507,574 news reports and tweets using large language models (LLMs). Our employed LLMs enable us to apply a scoring framework that precisely captures the intensity of fossil energy induced by the war. Validation tests across 24 European countries confirm that our WEI outperforms existing geopolitical risk indices in explaining wholesale electricity market dynamics. A structural break test identifies a significant market shift in early 2022, coinciding with the conflict's outbreak. This provides a statistical basis for our pre- and post-conflict analysis, which reveals a reversal of roles. Before 2022, fossil fuels played a stabilizing role in electricity markets. After the conflict began, their supply disruptions exacerbated market risks. In contrast, renewable energy sources – paricularly wind, solar, and hydropower – emerged as key stabilizers, significantly reducing market instability. These findings underscore the growing importance of renewables in ensuring energy security during geopolitical crises.
